Investors play defense heading into final trading days of year but still hope for a Santa rally surprise

Published Fri, Dec 23 20221:06 PM ESTUpdated Sat, Dec 24 20229:01 PM EST

Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/@pattidomm

The final trading week of the year is arriving with investors more concerned about defensive positioning than whether the stock market can muster a Santa Claus rally. Stocks were mixed in the past week, with the S & P 500 down about 0.2% and the Dow up 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite's losses were greater, nearly 2%, with the technology sector helping to lead the losers with a roughly 2% decline. The worst sector was consumer discretionary, while defensive groups such as health care, consumer staples and utilities were the best performers of the week. After today, there are just four trading days left in the year, with markets closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. As usual, there are just a few economic reports scheduled during Christmas week, with housing the dominant theme. S & P/Case-Shiller home prices for October are released Tuesday and November pending home sales are reported on Wednesday. "Next week's kind of tricky. It's going to be low volume. A lot of people are leaving for vacation," said Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com. "Those who had been optimistic that we could see some kind of push higher into year end got derailed by Tepper's interview. He said this isn't working out, we're going back to the lows next year." Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper is closely watched for his market calls. In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Tepper said he is "leaning short" on the stock market because of global central bank tightening. Many Wall Street strategists expect the beginning of 2023 to be rough for stocks, with the market potentially revisiting or setting new lows in the first or second quarter. Economists also expect the economy could tip into recession in the first six months. "I still see a positive year for stocks next year, one that's going to be accompanied by volatility in the early months," said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab. Kleintop said there are some big risks hanging over the market, including the potential for an energy price spike. He is also concerned that overtightening by the Federal Reserve and other central banks could hurt the economy. The strategist said there may be both positives and negatives from China reopening and moving away from its zero Covid policy. It should be stimulative, but at the same time Chinese demand for commodities could boost global inflation just as central banks battle to rein it in. Where's Santa? Friday started the traditional period for the Santa Claus rally, which is defined by Stock Trader's Almanac as the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. The S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain in that period, going back to 1950, and has been positive four out of every five years. Stocks gained Friday, with the S & P 500 up 0.6% to 3,844. "As of right now, basically the market is in a little bit of no man's land, where nobody is in a rush to look for bargains if we're heading down to 3,500" on the S & P 500, said Redler. He's watching the trading in some of the biggest names for short-term signals on the market. He said it will be important for Apple to hold $129 and Tesla to hold $122 in the coming week. "Next week could be crazy or it could be uneventful," he said. Week ahead calendar Monday Christmas holiday Markets closed Tuesday 8:30 a.m. November wholesale inventories 9:00 a.m. October S & P/Case-Shiller home prices 9:00 a.m. October FHFA home price index 10:30 a.m. December Dallas Fed index Wednesday 10:00 a.m. November pending home sales 10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed index Thursday 8:30 a.m. Weekly initial jobless claims Friday 9:45 a.m. December Chicago PMI